Bulletin of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. Astronomy, no. 72, p. 49-51 (2025)
CLOSE APPROACHES OF THE ASTEROIDS TO THE EARTH IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS
Anatoliy KAZANTSEV, PhD (Phys. & Math.), Senior Researcher
ORCID ID: 0009-0008-9700-6500
e-mail: ankaz@knu.ua
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Kyiv, Ukraine
Abstract
Background. Calculations of precise approaches of asteroids to the Earth are important both for the detection of potentially dangerous ones and for the possibility of more detailed study of them at close distances.
Methods. The main essence of the method is precise calculations of the evolution of asteroid orbits. The orbits themselves are selected from the catalog of the International Minor Planet Center. This catalog is the most complete database of all small bodies and contains the most accurate elements of their orbits.
Results. According to the calculations, 15 asteroids with sizes greater than 100 m were revealed, which in the next ten years will approach the Earth at a geocentric distance of less than 0.02 AU. The conditions for the approach of the asteroid Apophis to the Earth in 2029 will practically not differ from those calculated almost 20 years ago.
Conclusions. In the next ten years, 15 currently numbered asteroids with sizes of 100 m and more will approach the Earth at a distance of less than 0.02 AU. Three of them can be visible with the naked eye. The calculated conditions for the approach of Apophis to the Earth are very close to the calculations of 20 years ago. Therefore, it can be argued that before the approach in 2029, the orbit of the asteroid is unlikely to undergo noticeable changes. This, in turn, will mean that in 2029 Apophis will bypass those “keyholes”, the passage through which may threaten the collision of the asteroid with the Earth in 2036 or 2037.
Key words
Asteroids, orbits, approaches, Apophis.
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